Improving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives

TitleImproving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2003
AuthorsJonathan G Koomey, Paul P Craig, Ashok J Gadgil, David M Lorenzetti
JournalThe Energy Journal

One of the most striking things about forecasters is their lack of historical perspective. They rarely do retrospectives, even though looking back at past work can both illuminate the reasons for its success or failure, and improve the methodologies of current and future forecasts. One of the best and most famous retrospectives is that by Hans Landsberg, which investigates work conducted by Landsberg, Sam Schurr, and others. In this article, written mainly for model users, we highlight Landsberg's retrospective as a uniquely valuable contribution to improving forecasting methodologies. We also encourage model users to support such retrospectives more frequently. Finally, we give the current generation of analysts the kind of guidance we believe Landsberg and Sam Schurr would have offered about how to do retrospectives well.